Bitcoin Whale Indicator Flashes Signal Last Seen Before 480% Surge In Mid-2020

CryptoQuant
CEO
Ki
Young-Ju
today
pointed
out
significant
similarities
in
Bitcoin’s
market
behavior
between
the
current
state
and
mid-2020,
a
period
marked
by
stagnant
prices
but
high
on-chain
activity.
Young-Ju’s
insights
were
illustrated
with
two
key
charts
and
shared
via
a
post
on
X,
drawing
parallels
that
suggest
a
robust
undercurrent
of
large
volume
transactions,
potentially
outside
the
public
exchange
networks.

The
first
chart,
representing
data
up
until
2020,
shows
Bitcoin’s
price
alongside
the
realized
cap
for
new
whales
–
a
metric
that
tracks
the
aggregate
value
at
which
the
newly
acquired
Bitcoin
by
large
investors
was
last
moved.
It’s
a
different
form
of
market
capitalization
that
assesses
each
UTXO
at
the
price
it
last
changed
hands,
rather
than
its
present
market
price.
This
metric
reflects
the
actual
realized
value
of
all
the
coins
in
the
network,
rather
than
their
current
market
value.

Related
Reading

This
value
experienced
a
sharp
increase
around
mid-2020,
precisely
when
Bitcoin’s
price
was
caught
in
boredom
just
like
in
recent
months,
consistently
trading
around
the
$10,000
mark.
According
to
Young-Ju,
this
period
was
characterized
by
high
on-chain
activity
which
later
analysis
suggested
involved
over-the-counter
(OTC)
transactions
among
institutional
players.

In
the
second
chart,
extending
to
2024,
a
similar
pattern
emerges
with
even
more
pronounced
growth
in
the
realized
cap
for
new
whales,
despite
Bitcoin’s
price
showing
a
sideways
movement
for
almost
100
days
now.
The
chart
indicates
a
significant
addition
of
about
$1
billion
daily
into
new

whale
wallets,
a
term
typically
referring
to
addresses
holding
large
amounts
of
Bitcoin,
often
linked
with
institutional
or
highly
capitalized
individual
investors.

What
This
Means
For
Bitcoin
Price

Ki
Young-Ju
elaborated
on
these
observations:
“Same
vibe
on
Bitcoin
as
mid-2020.
Back
then,
BTC
hovered
around
$10k
for
6
months
with
high
on-chain
activity,
later
revealed
as
OTC
deals.
Now,
despite
low
price
volatility,
on-chain
activity
remains
high,
with
$1B
added
daily
to
new
whale
wallets,
likely
custody.”

Related
Reading

He
further
referenced
a
tweet
from
September
2020
that
corroborated
his
analysis,
noting
that
the
“number
of
BTC
transferred
hits
the
year-high,
and
those
TXs
are
not
from
exchanges.
Fund
Flow
Ratio
of
all
exchanges
hits
the
year-low.
Something’s
happening.
Possibly

OTC
deals.”

This
comparison
and
the
sustained
high
level
of
the
realized
cap
for
new
whales
suggest
an
ongoing
accumulation
phase
among
large-scale
investors,
reminiscent
of
the
activity
observed
in
mid-2020.
Such
movements
are
generally
not
visible
on
traditional
crypto
exchanges
and
indicate
a
strong
institutional
interest
that
could
be
a
precursor
to
significant
market
moves.
Following
Young-Ju’s
tweet,
BTC
price
rallied
by
480%
from
September
2020
till
November
2021.

If
a
similar
move
is
brewing
for
Bitcoin
price
remains
to
be
seen,
but
the
continuous
growth
in

Bitcoin
holdings
among
new
whales,
along
with
sustained
price
levels,
points
to
a
potential
buildup
of
pressure
beneath
the
apparent
calm
of
the
market
surface.
As
observed
in
the
past,
such
conditions
may
lead
to
substantial
price
movements
once
the
accumulated
Bitcoin
begins
to
impact
the
broader
market
through
either
increased
liquidity
or
renewed
trading
interest.

At
press
time,
BTC
traded
at
$68,271.

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image
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with
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